We have to evaluate Moore's law again if we want to forecast the semiconductor industry. The giant semiconductor industry has continuously enhanced their chips technology for 50 years. Is Moore's law still valid?
Twenty years ago, we upgraded our computers in every 2-3 years. And now, we can continue to use our existing computers for another 10 years unless it is broken because the capacity and speed of my chip processor are good enough for our daily operation.
So as mobile phones, the urge to upgrade is reducing. If you check on Apple phones, they are getting fewer and fewer functional changes for each upgrade. We don't get much benefits from the new chip technology advancement. Therefore, the demand for normal user upgrades is reducing.
New applications such as big data analytics, meta technology, and artificial intelligent applications require advanced and faster chip processors. However, do we want to heavily adopt meta and AI technology in our societies? AI technology can take over labor forces that more and more people will be unemployed. Do we want our children to live in an illusional world? This can be a huge social problem.
In my opinion, we have to control the automation rate for each industry so as to ensure that companies maintain a certain level of employment.
In fact, the demand for regular and low-ended chips can grow rapidly when we expand our markets to emergy countries.
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